Artikel Analisa Komprehensif
EUR/USD - Analisa 18 September 2025

Harga Sekarang: 1.18121

1. Analisa Fundamental: Pasca-Fed Reality Check

Fed Decision Impact:

25bps Rate Cut: Fed memotong rates seperti expected, namun forward guidance kurang dovish dari anticipated

Powell's Caution: Chair Powell warning tentang persistent inflation pressures

Dot Plot Revision: 2026 rate projections lebih hawkish dari expected

Market Reaction: "Sell the news" reaction typical setelah rally kuat

Euro Zone Factors:

ECB Response: Lagarde maintains hawkish stance, contrasting dengan Fed

Economic Data: German ZEW survey better than expected (48.7 vs 45.2)

Political Stability: French budget approval mengurangi political uncertainty

Technical Correction:

Profit-taking setelah 8-day rally

Options expiry influencing short-term moves

Gamma exposure di 1.18000 strike

2. Analisa Teknikal: Healthy Pullback

Daily Chart Analysis:

Trend Structure: Higher high and higher low intact

Pullback Depth: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement dari recent leg

Moving Averages: EMA 21 (1.17500) sebagai key support

Momentum: RSI reset dari 68 ke 58, healthy untuk continuation

4H Chart Analysis:

Bull Flag Formation: Konsolidasi setelah impulsive move

MACD: Bullish momentum intact, histogram masih positif

Volume Analysis: Profit-taking volume, bukan distribution

Key Levels:

Immediate Resistance: 1.18500 (pre-Fed high)

Major Resistance: 1.18800 (YTD high)

Support: 1.17800 (Fibonacci 38.2%) – 1.17500 (EMA 21)

3. Sentimen Pasar: Cautious Optimism

Market Positioning:

Institutional: Accumulating pada pullback

Retail: Profit-taking dari longs

Speculative: Waiting untuk clearer direction

Options Flow:

Call buying di 1.18000 strike

Put protection di 1.17500 level

Volatility compression post-event

4. Kesimpulan dan Rekomendasi Trading (Setup 1:2 Risk/Reward)

Skenario 1: BUY (Bull Flag Breakout)

Entry: 1.18000–1.18100 (current level dengan konfirmasi)

Stop Loss: 1.17700 (below Fibonacci support)

Take Profit: 1.18700

RR Ratio: 1:2.0 (40 pips risk vs 80 pips reward)

Konfirmasi: Bullish reversal pattern + volume expansion

Skenario 2: SELL (Breakdown Continuation)

Entry: 1.17800–1.17900 (break of support)

Stop Loss: 1.18200 (above breakdown level)

Take Profit: 1.17200

RR Ratio: 1:2.0 (60 pips risk vs 120 pips reward)

Konfirmasi: Daily close below 1.17800 + bearish momentum

5. Risk Management

Normal position size kembali post-Fed

Use 15-pip stop initially, adjust to 40-pip setelah konfirmasi

Monitor ECB speakers untuk additional catalysts

6. Key Economic Events

US Jobless Claims (12:30 GMT)

ECB Economic Bulletin (09:00 GMT)

Fed Speaker Williams (16:00 GMT)

EU Consumer Confidence (15:00 GMT)

7. Trading Execution Plan

Entry Timing: European session untuk liquidity

Position Sizing: Use ATR-based stops (14-period ATR: 45 pips)

Profit Taking: Scale out 50% di 1.18500, trail balance

Hedging: Consider EUR/GBP untuk cross hedge

8. Profit Protection Strategy

Take 50% profit di 1.18500

Move stop to breakeven di 1.18200

Trail balance dengan 4H EMA 8

9. Warning Signs

Break below 1.17500 (mengubah sentiment)

Hawkish ECB comments

Dollar strength resurgence

10. Opportunity Factors

Successful hold of 1.17800 support

Dovish Fed comments today

Risk-on sentiment continuation

Disclaimer: Trading mengandung risiko tinggi. Pastikan risk management yang proper dan hanya gunakan capital yang bisa Anda lose. Analisa ini bukan saran finansial.

Dengan pullback yang healthy ini, bias tetap bullish selama 1.17500 hold. Wait for confirmation candles sebelum entry, dan monitor economic calendar untuk potential catalysts.