Analisa Komprehensif EUR/USD - 19 September 2025
Harga Sekarang: 1.17815
1. Analisa Fundamental: Duel Kebijakan Bank Sentral
Faktor Pendukung Euro:
ECB hawkish stance: ECB maintains tough rhetoric on inflation fighting
Data ekonomi Eropa: German ZEW Economic Sentiment beat expectations (49.2 vs 47.5)
Dollar weakness: Fed dovish expectations continue to pressure USD
Political stability: French budget approval reduces EU political uncertainty
Faktor Penekan Euro:
Profit-taking pressure: long positions at extreme levels vulnerable to correction
Global risk concerns: China slowdown fears affecting risk appetite
Technical overbought: RSI approaching overbought territory on weekly chart
Event Risk Hari Ini:
ECB President Lagarde Speech (14:00 GMT)
US Existing Home Sales (14:00 GMT)
Fed Speaker Williams Speech (16:00 GMT)
2. Analisa Teknikal: Bull Flag Formation
Daily Chart Analysis:
Bull Flag Pattern: konsolidasi sehat setelah rally bullish
Momentum: RSI 59.8 menunjukkan kondisi sehat untuk continuation
Moving Averages: EMA 21 (1.17500) sebagai dynamic support
Volume Analysis: declining volume during consolidation typical for flags
4H Chart Analysis:
Bollinger Bands: price hovering near upper band, momentum intact
MACD: bullish momentum remains strong on lower timeframes
Support/Resistance: 1.17500 - 1.18000 range consolidation
Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance: 1.18000 (psychological barrier)
Major Resistance: 1.18250 (YTD high)
Support: 1.17500 (EMA 21) - 1.17200 (Fibonacci 61.8%)
3. Sentimen Pasar: Bullish dengan Hati-Hati
Market Positioning:
Institutional: net long EUR positions increased to 65%
Retail: mixed sentiment, some profit-taking at current levels
Options Flow: call buying concentrated at 1.1800 strike
Risk Assessment:
Gamma exposure at 1.1800 could amplify moves
Weekend positioning may increase volatility
ECB comments today could be catalyst
4. Kesimpulan dan Rekomendasi Trading (Setup 1:2 Risk/Reward)
Skenario 1: BUY (Bull Flag Breakout)
Entry: 1.17900–1.17950 (on approach to resistance)
Stop Loss: 1.17480 (below EMA 21 and flag support)
Take Profit: 1.18500
RR Ratio: 1:2.3 (45 pips risk vs 105 pips reward)
Konfirmasi: daily close above 1.18000 with volume expansion
Skenario 2: SELL (Rejection at Resistance)
Entry: 1.17980–1.18020 (on rejection at psychological level)
Stop Loss: 1.18280 (above YTD high)
Take Profit: 1.17200
RR Ratio: 1:2.1 (70 pips risk vs 150 pips reward)
Konfirmasi: bearish reversal pattern with increasing volume
5. Risk Management
Normal position size post-FED volatility
Use 25-pip initial stop, adjust to 45-pip after confirmation
Monitor ECB and Fed speakers for guidance
6. Key Economic Events
ECB President Lagarde Speech (14:00 GMT)
US Existing Home Sales (14:00 GMT)
Fed Speaker Williams (16:00 GMT)
EU Consumer Confidence Final (15:00 GMT)
7. Trading Execution Plan
Best Entry Time: European session for liquidity
Position Sizing: use ATR-based stops (14-period ATR: 50 pips)
Profit Taking: scale out 50% at 1.18200, trail balance
Hedging: consider EUR/GBP for cross correlation hedge
8. Profit Protection Strategy
Take 50% profit at 1.18200
Move stop to breakeven at 1.17900
Trail balance with 4H EMA 8
9. Warning Signs
Break below 1.17500 (changes short-term bias)
Hawkish Fed comments
Risk-off sentiment surge
10. Opportunity Factors
Break above 1.18000 with conviction
Dovish Fed rhetoric continuation
Strong EU economic data
Disclaimer: Trading mengandung risiko tinggi. Pastikan risk management yang proper dan hanya gunakan capital yang bisa Anda lose. Analisa ini bukan saran finansial.