EUR/USD - Analisa 25 September 2025
Harga Sekarang: 1.17440
1. Analisa Fundamental: Duel Kebijakan Bank Sentral
Faktor Pendukung Euro:
ECB Hawkish Stance: Komitmen memerangi inflasi meski tekanan ekonomi
Data Ekonomi Eropa: German IFO Business Climate better than expected (89.4 vs 88.2)
Dollar Weakness: Fed dovish expectations continue to pressure USD
Political Stability: French-German fiscal agreement boosts confidence
Faktor Penekan Euro:
Profit-Taking Pressure: Long positioning adjustment setelah rally
Technical Correction: Healthy pullback dari overbought conditions
Growth Concerns: EU manufacturing PMI shows contraction (47.8)
Event Risk Hari Ini:
US GDP Data (12:30 GMT)
ECB President Speech (14:00 GMT)
Fed Chair Powell Speech (16:00 GMT)
2. Analisa Teknikal: Critical Junction
Daily Chart Analysis:
Trend Structure: Testing key support setelah bullish run
Pattern Recognition: Bullish flag formation di support zone
Moving Averages: EMA 50 (1.17200) sebagai critical support
Momentum: RSI 48.30 menunjukkan kondisi netral
4H Chart Analysis:
Support Zone: 1.17350-1.17500 sebagai accumulation area
MACD: Potential bullish divergence forming
Volume Analysis: Light volume selama pullback
Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance: 1.17800 (psychological)
Major Resistance: 1.18100 (September high)
Support: 1.17200 (EMA 50) - 1.16900 (Fibonacci 61.8%)
3. Sentimen Pasar: Cautious
Market Positioning:
Institutional: 55% long (reduced dari 68%)
Retail: Mixed sentiment
Speculative: Waiting untuk clearer direction
Kesimpulan dan Rekomendasi Trading (Setup 1:2 Risk/Reward)
Skenario 1: BUY (Support Bounce)
Entry: 1.17350-1.17400 (support zone)
Stop Loss: 1.17100 (below EMA 50)
Take Profit: 1.17900
RR Ratio: 1:2.0 (35 pips risk vs 70 pips reward)
Konfirmasi: Bullish reversal pattern di support
Skenario 2: SELL (Breakdown)
Entry: 1.17250-1.17300 (break of support)
Stop Loss: 1.17550 (above breakdown level)
Take Profit: 1.16700
RR Ratio: 1:2.0 (50 pips risk vs 100 pips reward)
Konfirmasi: Daily close below 1.17200
Risk Management:
Maximum risk 1.5% per trade
Wait for candle close confirmation
Monitor ECB and Fed speeches
Key Economic Events:
US GDP Q3 (12:30 GMT)
ECB President Speech (14:00 GMT)
Fed Chair Powell (16:00 GMT)
US Pending Home Sales (14:00 GMT)
Trading Execution Plan:
Best Entry Time: European session (08:00-12:00 GMT)
Position Sizing: Use ATR-based stops (14-period ATR: 45 pips)
Profit Taking: Scale out 50% di 1.17800, trail balance
Hedging: Consider EUR/GBP untuk correlation hedge
Profit Protection Strategy:
Take 50% profit at 1.17800
Move stop to breakeven at 1.17500
Trail remaining position dengan EMA 21
Warning Signs:
Break below 1.16900 (mengubah sentiment)
Hawkish Fed comments
Dollar strength resurgence
Opportunity Factors:
Successful hold of 1.17200 support
Dovish Powell comments
Risk-on sentiment return
Disclaimer: Trading forex mengandung risiko tinggi. Pastikan risk management yang proper dan hanya gunakan capital yang bisa Anda lose. Analisa ini bukan saran finansial.
Dengan analisa komprehensif ini, traders dapat mempersiapkan kedua skenario dengan risk/reward yang optimal. Current level memberikan opportunity untuk both directions dengan konfirmasi yang jelas