EUR/USD - Analisa 24 September 2025
Harga Sekarang: 1.18017
1. Analisa Fundamental: Euphoria vs Realitas
Bullish Factors:
Fed Dovish Surprise: Pemotongan suku bunga 50 bps minggu lalu
ECB Hawkish Stance: Komitmen memerangi inflasi tetap kuat
Political Stability: Kesepakatan fiskal EU memberikan kepercayaan pasar
Dollar Weakness: DXY jatuh ke level 100.80, terendah 2 tahun
Bearish Risks:
Overbought Extreme: RSI di 70.80, zona bahaya untuk koreksi
Profit-Taking Pressure: Long positioning mencapai level ekstrem
Economic Reality: Data PMI Eropa menunjukkan kontraksi
Event Risk Hari Ini:
Flash Manufacturing PMI EU & US (08:00-13:45 GMT)
ECB President Lagarde Speech (14:00 GMT)
Fed Chair Powell Speech (16:00 GMT)
2. Analisa Teknikal: Warning Signs Muncul
Daily Chart Analysis:
Trend Structure: 12 hari bullish beruntun, parabolic move
Momentum Indicators: RSI 70.80 menunjukkan kondisi overbought berbahaya
Pattern Analysis: Rising wedge formation near completion
Volume Analysis: Declining volume pada new highs - warning sign
4H Chart Analysis:
Bearish Divergence: RSI membuat lower high sementara harga higher high
MACD Divergence: Momentum melemah meski harga naik
Key Levels: 1.17650 sebagai support kritis
Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance: 1.18300 (psychological)
Major Resistance: 1.18500 (Fibonacci 161.8%)
Support: 1.17650 (previous resistance) - 1.17200 (EMA 21)
3. Sentimen Pasar: Extreme Greed
Market Positioning:
Retail longs: 85% (extremely bullish)
Institutional: Heavy profit-taking di current levels
COT Report: Commercials increasing short positions
Risk Assessment:
Gamma exposure tinggi di 1.18000 strike
Stop clusters below 1.17500 level
Volatility expected spike during speeches
Kesimpulan dan Rekomendasi Trading (Setup 1:2 Risk/Reward)
Skenario 1: SELL (Technical Correction) - PRIMARY
Entry: 1.18150-1.18200 (rejection at resistance)
Stop Loss: 1.18550 (above Fibonacci 161.8%)
Take Profit: 1.17200
RR Ratio: 1:2.1 (75 pips risk vs 160 pips reward)
Konfirmasi: Bearish rejection candle + RSI divergence
Skenario 2: BUY (Momentum Continuation) - HIGH RISK
Entry: 1.17700-1.17800 (shallow pullback)
Stop Loss: 1.17400 (below key support)
Take Profit: 1.18700
RR Ratio: 1:2.2 (40 pips risk vs 90 pips reward)
Konfirmasi: Bullish reversal pattern at support
Risk Management:
Reduce position size 70% karena kondisi overbought
Use wider stops (60-80 pips) untuk volatility
Prepare untuk potential 150-pip correction
Event Reaction Scenarios:
Hawkish ECB: Brief spike to 1.18500 then sell-off
Dovish Powell: Collapse to 1.17000-1.17200
Mixed Data: Choppy consolidation 1.17700-1.18300
Trading Execution Plan:
Pre-Speech: Reduce exposure to minimum
Post-Speech: Wait for 2-hour candle close sebelum entry
Position Sizing: Maximum 0.5% risk selama event risk
Hedging: Consider USD/CHF atau gold untuk protection
Profit Protection Strategy:
Take 60% profit at 1.17500 (sell) atau 1.18500 (buy)
Move stop to breakeven setelah 40-pip move
Use trailing stop 4H EMA 8 untuk momentum trades
Warning Signs:
RSI above 75 (extreme danger zone)
Volume divergence on new highs
Sharp reversal candle dengan volume tinggi
Disclaimer: Trading dalam kondisi parabolic sangat berbahaya. Koreksi 200-pip dapat terjadi dalam hitungan jam. Hanya trader experienced dengan risk management ketat yang boleh consider trading live.
Dengan kondisi overbought ekstrem ini, risk/reward untuk buy sangat tidak favorable. Wait for pullback ke 1.17000-1.17300 area untuk long entries yang lebih aman.