1. Analisa Fundamental: Angin Segar Dukung Euro
Dollar Weakness:
Data CPI AS lebih lemah dari expected (2.7% vs 2.9% y/y)
Fed signals lebih dovish, memproyeksikan 2 rate cuts di 2025
Retail sales AS mengecewakan (-0.4% m/m vs expected -0.2%)
Euro Strength:
ECB maintains hawkish stance, menolak immediate rate cuts
Data GDP Zona Euro Q2 2025 revisi lebih tinggi ke +0.4% q/q
Political stability di Jerman setelah pembentukan koalisi baru
Global Factors:
Risk-on sentiment mendukung euro
China stimulus measures membantu sentiment emerging markets
Oil prices stabil di $65 mendukung risk appetite
2. Analisa Teknikal: Breakout Konfirmasi
Daily Chart Analysis:
Breakout Confirmed: Berhasil menembus resistance 1.17000
Trend Structure: Higher high dan higher low tetap utuh
Pattern: Bullish flag breakout dengan target 1.18000
Momentum: RSI 62.30 menunjukkan ruang untuk rally lanjutan
Volume: Breakout didukung volume kuat (1.8x average)
4H Chart Analysis:
EMA alignment: Bullish sequence (21 > 50 > 100)
MACD: Bullish crossover, momentum menguat
Bollinger Bands: Expansion setelah konsolidasi
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.17500 (Fib 127.2%) – 1.18000 (psychological)
Support: 1.16900 (EMA 21) – 1.16600 (EMA 50)
3. Sentimen Pasar: Bullish Optimism
Market Sentiment:
Bullish: 68% (institutional flow)
Bearish: 32% (profit-taking)
Options flow: Call buying meningkat di 1.1750 strike
Risk Appetite:
Moderate risk-on environment
EUR demand di sesi Asia dan Eropa
Short covering momentum kuat
4. Kesimpulan dan Rekomendasi Trading (Setup 1:2 Risk/Reward)
Skenario 1: BUY (Breakout Continuation)
Entry: 1.17150 – 1.17200 (on dip)
Stop Loss: 1.16850 (below EMA 21)
Take Profit: 1.18100
RR Ratio: 1:2.8 (35 pips risk vs 100 pips reward)
Konfirmasi: Hold di atas 1.17000 support
Skenario 2: SELL (False Breakout)
Entry: 1.16800 (on break below EMA 21)
Stop Loss: 1.17300 (above breakout level)
Take Profit: 1.16200
RR Ratio: 1:2 (50 pips risk vs 100 pips reward)
Konfirmasi: Close di bawah 1.16900 + bearish momentum
5. Risk Management
Maximum risk 1.5% per trade
Adjust position size sesuai volatility
Monitor komentar ECB dan data ekonomi AS
6. Key Economic Events
US Retail Sales (13 Sept)
ECB President Speech (15 Sept)
Fed Meeting Minutes (17 Sept)
German CPI (16 Sept)
7. Trading Execution Plan
Best Entry Time: European session morning (08:00–10:00 GMT)
Position Sizing: ATR-based stop loss (14-period ATR: 45 pips)
Timeframe: 4H untuk entry, daily untuk trend utama
Hedging: Pertimbangkan EUR/GBP untuk cross correlation
8. Profit Taking Strategy
Take 50% profit di 1.17800
Move stop ke breakeven di 1.17300
Trail remaining position dengan EMA 21
9. Warning Signs to Watch
Daily close di bawah 1.16900 (membatalkan breakout)
RSI di atas 75 (overbought warning)
USD strength mendadak dari safe-haven flow
⚠️ Disclaimer
Analisa ini hanya untuk tujuan edukasi. Trading forex berisiko tinggi. Pastikan menggunakan risk management yang tepat dan konsultasikan dengan financial advisor sebelum trading.